LEON & IRAPUATO (Mexico) - As the FIBA U17 Women's Basketball World Cup 2024 moves into tournament crunch time, the second volume of the Smart Power Rankings outlines who could hit the podium and who might be left disappointed.
The list has been compiled taking into account tournament results, performances plus the absolutely essential competition system / bracket.
So without any further delay, here's our second and final countdown from 16-1.
#16 Egypt (-4)
FIBA U16 Women's African Championship 2023: 2nd FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 20th
It's been brutal so far for Egypt, but of course they could still defy this ranking. A change in the quality of the opposition lies ahead now they're playing Classification Games. This might re-charge confidence levels and especially after that one-sided Round of 16 game with USA.
Turnovers have obviously hurt - a lot. While defensively the team is leaking far too many points. The upside is when sharing the ball and being aggressive at the offensive end, it looks more positive. Khadiga Abouelghait has been the pick so far and tried her best to inspire.
#15 Mexico (+1)
FIBA U16 Women's Americas Championship 2023: 7th FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 34th
The host nation came so close to getting a Group phase victory when they were beaten by a solitary point against Mali. Maybe revenge will come their way in this last few days, but they will find these games a real incentive to give the home fans a reason to celebrate.
Maria Fernanda Romero Reyes has been the baller leading her team and now if Sofia Acuna can bring it too, they could be in line to do better than this 15th spot. They also have to really start taking care of the ball too.
#14 Argentina (-1)
FIBA U16 Women's Americas Championship 2023: 3rd FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 30th
The struggles from three-point range have been epic at times for Argentina and this has fed into their lack of an offensive punch. This weak scoring power places more pressure on the defense and it has not been a great mix.
But if they can just start knocking down some shots from behind the arc, things could change for the better. In reality, everyone needs to draw a line on the first four games and bring it. The lack of players in double-digits for efficiency tells a story.
#13 Chinese Taipei (+1)
FIBA U16 Women's Asia Championship 2023: 4th FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 28th
The good news is that whatever happens next, Chinese Taipei have proudly recorded their first ever win at the tournament. The debutantes have endured such a roller-coaster ride, but will not forget that 24-point maiden victory over Egypt in a hurry.
The biggest challenge has been a lack of impact on the glass. They have been out-rebounded in most of the games. Meanwhile with limited scoring power they might struggle to reach 13th, but at least they come into the Classification Games with a win already to their name.
#12 Puerto Rico (+3)
FIBA U16 Women's Americas Championship 2023: 4th FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 22nd
In patches, these debutantes have looked capable of doing good things and that was illustrated against Canada at the start of the second half when they caused their Americas rival some issues in the Rond of 16 before fading badly. Putting together a consistent display over the full 40 minutes looks to be the aim now and to be fair, they have had really tough fixtures.
Chasing a historic first ever victory at the event, that could be coming. They have done a good job at looking after the ball and keeping turnovers reasonable, as well as being very competitive physically all over the court. But, they have not shot well enough - yet!
#11 Mali (-1)
FIBA U16 Women's Africa Championship 2023: 1st FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 12th
This ranking could be over-baking the Mali cake! They have been a shadow of most Mali teams that have been before them at previous editions and that is a concern. But they do have a win against Mexico to lean on and should be strong enough to collect more.
In terms of defense, their ability to steal the ball is outstanding. Now they need to be more clinical in transition. With Couda Keita the only player just scraping double-digits in points, one or two of her colleagues need to find their scoring touch - and quickly.
#10 New Zealand (+1)
FIBA U16 Women's Asia Championship 2023: 3rd FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 31st
Having impressed in the Group phase with two wins from their three games, the wheels came crashing off in the Round of 16. In what had looked to be a 50-50 matchup against rookies Finland, the Islanders fell apart and chose a bad time to have their worst display so far.
That big loss will be tough to get over, but they have to deal with it and finish on a high. They are capable of getting 2-3 more wins in the last days. Bailey Flavell and Keriana-Marie Te Ao Marama Hippolite are the duo that will likely get their team back on track!
#9 Croatia (-)
FIBA U16 Women's European Championship 2023: 5th FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 11th
What a roller-coaster ride this has been for Croatia on their first appearance at the event. From one game to the next, it seems like anything could happen with the newcomers. They lost narrowly to Australia in the Group phase and then were only just edged out in another heartbreaker by France in the Round of 16 as they missed out on a Quarter-Finals ticket.
Surely Croatia can add to their solitary win against Puerto Rico so far. Having to play USA, Australia and France has been a really steep learning curve. The talented Olivia Vukosa and Lena Bilic should be able to inspire more wins, but 29 turnovers per game has killed Croatia.
#8 Finland (-)
FIBA U16 Women's European Championship 2023: 4th FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 10th
What an up and down but mainly exhilarating experience it has been for Finland on their first ever appearance. From the agony of losing to Japan so closely, their extraordinary struggles to make shots from long-range in the early games, to making history with a maiden win and then rolling over New Zealand with ease to march into the Quarter-Finals!
Tiia Talonen and Nicole Ogun have risen up and with the likes of Eevi Seppa also stepping up, could they shock Canada and make the Semi-Finals? That would be a truly extraordinary story if they do it, not only as debutantes but having been a modest fifth in Europe last year.
#7 Japan (-1)
FIBA U16 Women's Asian Championship 2023: 2nd FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 9th
Breaking records in the Round of 16 when Sara Yamada became the first player to hit double-digits for assists in two games at the same edition, as well as her team handing out more assists than ever before - what kind of reward is this? Facing USA in the Quarter-Finals?
Well, somebody has to do it. Even if Japan are unlikely to slow down the runaway train that is the reigning champions, they may get at least one win on their record in the last days. As well as Yamada impressing in the backcourt, Otoha Goto has done nice business in the frontcourt.
#6 Italy (+1)
FIBA U16 Women's European Championship 2023: 3rd FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 15th
Maybe punching slightly above their weight compared to expectations heading into the tournament, it's so far, so good for Italy. Still yet to lose a game, they have performed well. However in truth, they have had the easiest path of any team. That is clearly evidenced by the fact all four teams faced are now all in the Classification Round.
So can they prove themselves now against the best teams in the competition? They might do just that - especially with strength inside of Isabel Mohamud Mohamed Hassan who has been impressive. The difference is that they have not needed that high performing guard who can shift the momentum or possibly deliver in the clutch. Who will step up and assume that role?
#5 Spain (-)
FIBA U16 Women's European Championship 2023: 2nd FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 4th
The positives for Spain have been huge, with Sara Okeke one of the standout players of the Group phase. The athletic and powerful frontcourt baller is such a hot prospect for way beyond this first global tournament.
Meanwhile Spain are moving the ball pretty well and really making that extra pass - something highlighted by the number of assists they have been racking up as a team. This might see them replace Australia on the actual podium - if not the power ranking podium.
#4 France (-2)
FIBA U16 Women's Eurpopean Championship 2023: 1st FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 2nd
There is only one question really when it comes to France - how much do we read into that very poor performance and Group loss to Canada? Was it a one-off and we will see the European U16 champs from last year bounce back? They could still get a medal and maybe even make the title game itself, but only if they start shifting up through the gears.
Some of those players who excelled in 2023 are yet to fully heat up in Mexico, including talented MVP Ainhoa Risacher. Outside of Sarah Cisse, France have not really had many players lighting it up. Who's going to change this now we're at the business end of things?
#3 Australia (-)
FIBA U16 Women's Asia Championship 2023: 1st FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 5th
The game against Spain could hardly be much tougher and the Sapphires will have to post their best display to date to reach the last four. They will then have to turn up the dial another notch again to win the Third-Place game. On the evidence of performances so far, this might just be the most generous ranking on the list.
The Sapphires have not really sparkled yet, but there's surely more to come if some things click into place. The main thrust of their challenge is based on Sitaya Fagan, Lara Somfai and the guard play of Ruby Perkins. But too many turnovers as a team is a bit of a concern.
#2 Canada (+2)
FIBA U16 Women's Americas Championship 2023: 2nd FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 3rd
Defensive intensity, quick hands, aggression and slick transition have had this Canada team absolutely cooking since they landed on Mexican soil. They have Savannah Swords looking like a lock for All-Star Five and balling out right now, so if she can keep rolling strong, it could be an appearance in the Final against their neighbors.
Of course, it's not how you start a competition, it's how hot you are down the stretch. It's a big ask for this them to maintain this breathless intensity. Agot Makeer and Deniya Prawl have also led well and there's much to love. But do Canada have enough gas left in the tank?
#1 USA (-)
FIBA U16 Women's Americas Championship 2023: 1st FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike, Girls: 1st
Dominate and win. Repeat. Smash a record or two. Repeat. Yes, USA have been awesome and look head and shoulders above everyone else. They have done it as a true team unit and looked like a well-oiled offensive machine.
Is there really any chance it might malfunction in any way? It's always possible, but they look elite, top of the class, cream of the crop* (*insert any other way of praising the best there is). If this USA team doesn't grab gold, it would surely be the biggest shock in FIBA Youth history.
*The Power Rankings are entirely subjective and is in no way a true, accurate ranking system. All comments are purely those of the author and expert panel.